Beaver rushing production during the Quizz era and post Quizz – a look at the numbers

I am a believer in the rushing game.  I believe that the Oregon State Beavers have chosen to decrease their rushing game in favor of the passing game.  I believe that this shift has been unwarranted and has been detrimental to the Beavers’ offensive production and to their winning percentage.  Much has been made of the efficacy of the offensive line and its relationship to the running game and, in consequence, to our Win/Loss record.  I believe that the downturn in winning percentage is due more to play calling (run vs. pass) than it is to offensive line play.  In order to verify or contradict my belief, I decided to take a look at the numbers.

Methodology:

I wanted to see the effect that Jaquizz Rodgers had on the team totals and averages, so I pulled his numbers to compare, and used his numbers to see how the team did rushing when he wasn’t carrying the ball.  This method does not take into account his effect on the overall outcome of a play when he is not carrying the ball (i.e. blocking or decoy), but it still gives us a clearer look at his effect on the stat line.

Team Net is team total rushes minus sacks and team total rushing yards plus sack yards.

CPG = Carries per Game

CPT = Carries per Touchdown

Rush % = Number of net rushing plays (total – sacks) divided by the total number of plays (rushing plays including sacks + official passing attempts)

I concede that this is a small sample set, but since it somewhat supports my opinion I like it.  Exactly what do these numbers tell us?  Probably  not a lot – but as a former devoted reader of Bill James’ annual “Baseball Abstract” I like looking at the numbers in different ways.

Review these numbers at your leisure, I’m not exactly sure what to make of them except the confirmation of what we already know – Quizz was special.  But I enjoy looking at some of these numbers.  I’m not going to draw any large conclusions from them, but I’m going to discuss a couple of them in this post..

First, I want to point out that 2009 was a monster year for Quizz in terms of YPC (5.27) but also CPT (13).  I think there are two things that account for this:

1)      Maturity and experience – it was his second year as feature back.

2)      Offensive line – the line performed better than it did in 2010.

When we look at the larger picture we see that Carries per Game dropped dramatically over these four years, from almost 36 to barely over 24.  Another important number to note is the percentage of rushing plays to total plays, the Beavers went from a high of nearly 50% in 2008 to a low of 35.4% in 2011.  Two reasons given for the low percentage in ’11 are – no breakout running back and poor run blocking by the offensive line.

I refute both of these arguments as valid reasons for only running the ball one third of the time.  Yards per carry were 4.3 in 2011 – not earth shattering, but still within range of the three previous years.  4.3 is respectable, and that number tells me that we should have been running more.  Running with a 4.3 average controls the game more, gives your defense more rest and, I argue, wins more games.

4.3 says the running game in 2011, while not quite to the level of previous years, was not totally inept.  The difference between 4.3 YPC and 5 YPC over a game (assuming 30 carries per game) is 21 yards.  In the larger scheme of things, those 21 yards do not lose games, per se.  The timing of those yards is the difference maker – but I believe  there is a bigger difference maker: Almost always passing on first down seems to yield a long string of 3rd and longs.  If the running game can put you at 2nd and 5 or 2nd and 6, you  have a decent chance of making your mark.  Running 50% to 60% of the time on first down increases the effectiveness of your first down passing.  Running more sustains more drives, keeps the opponents defense on the field longer and your own off the field longer.  Defense being where fatigue most often becomes a factor, this is a BIG deal as the game wears on.

I think our reluctance to run came from two sources:  1) Our young running backs fumbled the ball at inopportune times, and discouraged the coaches from relying on them.  But QBs, especially young QBs, throw interceptions at inopportune times, and are rarely benched when it occurs.  2) A former QB as offensive coordinator will have a bias toward the pass – all QBs do, it’s their thing.

Finally, I want to say this:  Had we shown more confidence in our running game, and ran the ball 50% of the time (at the RIGHT time) the beneficial results would have shown in the late 3rd and the 4th quarters.  More running would have yielded better YPC numbers, because the early work would pay off as the defensive lines grew weary later in the game.  I think our disuse (and misuse – but that’s another rant) of the running game cost us a least 3 games – without question the Sac State game was lost due to a refusal to run the ball in the first half.  Would 3 more wins in 2011 meant anything to Beaver fans?